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Poinsettia Bowl Preview
Who: No. 25 TCU (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5)
Where: San Diego
When: 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
WagerWeb.com line: TCU -11.5
Key Matchup: The game features the nation’s leading rusher, Garrett Wolfe, against the nation’s fourth-ranked run defense (67.6 YPG).
Why The Huskies Win: Wolfe has been a workhorse at Northern Illinois for four years. His 5,136 career rushing yards is a NIU record and is the most among active NCAA players. Four consecutive teams held him to less than 66 yards rushing at the middle of the season. After a 10-day break, he then rushed for 209 yards and 3 TDs in a game. Wolfe will have rested for 25 days when game-time hits. NIU loves being the underdog. Since 1992, NIU is 12-4 ATS when more than a 10-point dog. NIU is also red hot. The Huskies ended their final two games of the season outscoring their opponents 58-10, including a win over MAC champion Central Michigan.
Why The Horned Frogs Win: Defense. Defense. Defense. TCU has stopped all types of offenses. It held offensive juggernaut Texas Tech to just three points and stopped Air Force’s triple-option attack except for two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake, WAC first-team selections at defensive end, will plug holes and stop the run. Offensively, TCU is on a roll. QB Jeff Ballard has engineered his unit to 135 points the past 3 games, all victories. The team has won seven straight, and as a favorite ATS this season it is 8-2.
Prediction: TCU 34-28.
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