The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble

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The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon NobleHandicapping College Bowl GamesWith 32 College Bowl Games spread through January 8th, many handicappersare putting in extra hours. While some suggest treating these games justlike any other, there are two good reasons to spend some extra timestudying these match-ups. First, games that are televised over theholidays have more "public" money bet on them, giving the studious playerthe opportunity to gain an extra edge. Second, there are a number offactors that cause many of these games to play out differently from theregular season, giving yet more value to professionals."Technical handicapping" is a method of looking for statistical trendswithout giving too much weight to the teams themselves. This method haspreviously proved very successful for Bowl Games. In the past four years,underdogs getting more than 7 points have gone 25-10-1, or 71.4% againstthe spread. However, be careful not to blindly bet a technical trend thathas done well in the past. More people are discovering these angles andbetting into them, so if everyone has the same idea, the line eventuallybecomes more efficient (e.g. a +12 dog in years past may now only be +8),pushing the trend towards 50% going forward.In all games, a good starting point for general handicapping is to look athow the match-up looks statistically. All the vital data is at yourfingertips by visiting http://collegefootball.pinnaclesports.com/. Inaddition to team and match-up statistics, Pinnacle Sportsbook offerssports bettors further useful information, such as ATS and totals resultsfor a variety of situations, as well as a link to Pinnacle Sportsbetting'slive lines.Once you have a feel for the basic match-up, there are two additionalfactors to consider for Bowl Games. Firstly, contemplate the motivationaledge. A solid team playing against a weak opponent may be disappointed bythe match-up. This could result in flat play, which is one explanation forthe underdog Bowl trend mentioned above.When an average or slightly above average team goes to a Bowl game, it'splaying in its "Super Bowl" and every player is motivated to play the gameof their life. This inspiration may not be felt by their superioropponents, so look for many underdogs to have an emotional edge in theBowls. Of course in the BCS Bowls, strong teams usually stay motivatedregardless of their opponent.Another major factor to consider for College Bowl Games is a team's coach.When teams have four weeks to prepare, and holidays are between a team'slast regular season game and the Bowl, coaching plays a bigger role thannormal. A well-coached team is likely to over perform, but even more so ina Bowl game when there's more time to prepare. Conversely, anundisciplined team has more time to lose focus.Here's a simple two-part test to identify a good coach: (1). Does hemanage the clock properly?; and (2). Is he aggressive with fourth downplay calling? This test may sound simple, but it's effective at quicklysorting out the coaches. Is his team down by 10 in the fourth quarter?Good coaches start using timeouts early, even with five minutes left.What's the call if it's fourth down and two from the 50? If he punts, thecall is suspect unless he has a two-score lead late in the game. If you'realready leaning on a play, a good coach is often enough to warrant"pulling the trigger".What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?Washington +10 -113 vs. New OrleansWe opened the Redskins at +7 (-105) and immediately took hits from thesharps on the Saints. In addition to laying the 7, we also saw somepoint-buying down to -6.5. While we believe point-buying hurts a playerover the long-term, the price of these half-points might be under pricedif the closing line ends up very far from where the point-buying occurred.In this instance, the wise guys got the best of us.Cincinnati +3 +107 vs. IndianapolisFor most of the year, the Colts were the public's darling. The Colts' poorrun defense was overlooked, because their opponents were trailing byseveral scores and couldn't emphasize the rushing game. Last week, thestats finally caught up to the Colts when their 32nd ranked run defensewas torched for 375 yards by Jacksonville in the 44-17 blow out.When a public team falls hard, sharps often take a contrarian posture. Inthis week's most heavily traded game, the public is backing the Bengals bya 2:1 margin. The line however, has barely moved suggesting the sharpshave lined up on the Colts to counterbalance the public.Cincinnati/Indianapolis O/U 54.5The total on the Monday Night game opened at 50.5, which slowly crept up.It's not surprising that the price drifted up given memories of lastyear's match-up between these two, when they scored 62 points in the firsthalf! Compound that with the Colts' anemic run defense, sprinkle on alittle Monday Night Football bias, and there's no telling how high thiswill go.We are flat on this game, but are forced to move as the whole marketclimbs, or will get stuck with a large imbalance. Thus far, the sharpshave not expressed an opinion on the total. In games with totals this highthough, professionals will usually play the under near game time. In thelast 10 years, playing the under for high-totaled games (52 and over) hasgone 25-20-1.Las Vegas Bowl: BYU -3.5 -105 vs. OregonOf the early Bowl games, this is the highest volume match-up. We openedBYU as 7-point favorites, but the early sharps sucked out all the value,backing the Ducks until the line stabilized where it is now. Although BYUis 10-2, they're only ranked 19th due to a soft schedule. The Cougarsplayed only one ranked team this year, losing to Boston College 23-20.Oregon won its first four games and then stumbled, finishing the season at7-5 with three consecutive losses. Although the two teams are very closein the computer rankings, Oregon's season-ending slump is making a lot ofplayers think twice before backing the Ducks.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up nowwith Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!