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College Basketball Gameday
How much stock do you put in the polls?
If you’re a casual college basketball fan, it might be difficult for you to get interested in teams who lie outside the Top 25. That’s too bad. What if we told you that’s where the money is? Six of the 10 most profitable teams against the spread are unranked. As long as they stay out of the limelight, their chances of staying profitable will be enhanced. But let’s risk shining a little light on some of these teams and their Saturday matchups.
Mississippi at Arkansas
The Mississippi Rebels are one of the big surprise stories of the 2006-07 season. Picked by many to finish at the bottom of the SEC West, the Rebels have instead stormed out to a 17-8 record straight up, including 6-5 in a tough conference. That turnaround translates to 16-6 against the spread.
Ole Miss remains under the radar, though, with an RPI rating of 54. The non-conference portion of the schedule was softer than ice cream on a summer day in the Magnolia State – then the Rebels opened up SEC play at 1-4 before putting together their current four-game winning streak. One of the key changes for Ole Miss is the decision to convert senior guard Clarence Sanders from a starter to a sixth man. The last time the Rebels faced the Razorbacks, Sanders was still in the rotation and shot just 5-for-13 (38.5 percent); however, in five games coming off the bench, the Alabama native is shooting 36-for-73 (49.3 percent). Arkansas will have its hands full Saturday.
Davidson at Western Carolina
Welcome to the Southern Conference. Davidson is sitting pretty on top of the South Division at 13-1 SU (22-4 overall) and third in the ATS standings at 16-6-1. That seems like reason enough to get to know the Wildcats.
The big story on this team is freshman guard Stephen Curry. He’s mowing down opponents with 20.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists and two steals per game, nailing 40 percent of his 3-point attempts along the way. And he just keeps getting better. Curry has more than just filled the void that opened up after the Wildcats lost so many talented seniors from last year’s squad, including the school’s top scorer of all-time, Brendan Winters.
Beating the Catamounts for the second time this season shouldn’t be a problem. The ‘Cats won the last matchup (also at Western Carolina) 79-59 to cover the 16-point spread. Davidson is 4-0 ATS this year when favored by more than 12 points.
Towson at Bucknell
The Colonial Athletic Association gave us some great stories last year, none greater than the George Mason Patriots. But this year’s unlikely candidates for your attention are the Towson Tigers, a perennial doormat in the CAA. No longer; Towson is 14-13 overall, 8-8 in conference action, and a very healthy 16-8 against the spread.
This is all a little less surprising when you look at the recent history of the program. The Tigers hired Pat Kennedy to take over the coaching reins in 2004. Kennedy was an assistant under the legendary Jim Valvano at Iona; as a head coach, Kennedy twice took the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament, then returned to the big dance with both FSU and DePaul. His work turning the flagging Blue Demons program around earned him the job at Towson, and Kennedy is once again working his magic.
The Tigers won’t be making the Tournament this year, barring a fluke, but they are well on their way to respectability. They’re also playing very good basketball right now. Towson covered 10 of its past 12 games, including a pair of close losses to Virginia Commonwealth and another pair to Hofstra, two of the top teams in the CAA. Now they get to travel outside of the conference for what should be another tight matchup versus Bucknell of the Patriot League. The Bison generally don’t see any betting lines in their own conference, but this is a BracketBuster contest, and Bucknell has been in the Tournament each of the last two seasons. Towson will have a lot of trouble getting to the basket in this one. The total will be the lowest the Tigers have seen in at least 12 games – the OVER has a slim 7-5 advantage during that span.
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