NFL Week 13 Spread Picks

NFL Week 13 Spread Picks

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Well, due to the Thanksgiving games last week I didn’t have much time to study, and lo and behold, I had my best week of the season, simply by trusting my first instinct. With the early game (Baltimore-Cincy) again this week, I’ll go with my first thought again and see how it goes!

I’m going to base all my results on the assumption I’m betting to win $100 with a -110 vig (meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100) and buying on/off the 3 and 7 (and occasionally the 10 or 14) for -130 when necessary. On to my picks for Week 13:

Baltimore +3 at Cincinnati
This is desperation time for the Bengals, and if they lose they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. The Ravens are on a serious roll, but I think the Bengals get up for this one and take it by a TD. Buy to -2.5 to be safe. My pick: CINCINNATI

Minnesota +9 at Chicago
Minnesota shuts down the run better than any other team in the NFL. With the erratic play of Rex Grossman, I think the Vikings will get at least 2-3 turnovers and keep it close. My pick: MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay +7 at Pittsburgh
This is a tough one, but I think the Steelers will put forth a good effort this week, even without inspirational leader Hines Ward. I can just see him standing on the sideline waving his Terrible Towel and whipping the crowd into a frenzy. Buy to -6.5. My pick: PITTSBURGH

Arizona +6.5 at St. Louis
This is probably a good line, and I won’t be betting this one, but with the nice number for the home team I’ll go with the Rams. My pick: ST. LOUIS

Indianapolis -7.5 at Tennessee
The Titans almost pulled off the upset of the year the last time these two played, and with Indy’s lack of ability to stop the run, I think Tennessee does what it did last time – pound it with Travis Henry and keep the ball for as long as it can.
My pick: TENNESSEE

Jacksonville pk at Miami
Miami has played much better recently and is loving the spoiler role. Even without RB Ronnie Brown, I think the Dolphins can find a way to beat an inconsistent Jaguar squad. My pick: MIAMI

San Francisco +7 at New Orleans
The 49ers are a much improved team now, and their defense is getting better by the week. They are by no means a playoff team but are good enough to keep it close against a Saints team that plays little defense. Buy to +7.5. My pick: SAN FRANCISCO

Atlanta +2 at Washington
This is another tough to call due to the sheer inconsistency of both teams. You never know which Falcons team is going to show up, and the Redskins are only playing their third game with rookie QB Jason Campbell. My hunch is the Falcons show up this week and Campbell struggles a little. My pick: ATLANTA

Kansas City -5 at Cleveland
Cleveland got skunked by the Bengals last week, and I think the Browns probably heard about it all week in practice. I do think the Browns have some pride and will try to ruin the playoff hopes of the Chiefs. My pick: CLEVELAND

Detroit +13.5 at New England
This will be the pick of every player still remaining in a survivor pool this week. With the way underdogs have covered this year and the Pats coming off the big win over Chicago, I’ll say Detroit finds a way to keep it within 10. Buy to +14 to be safe. My pick: DETROIT

San Diego -6 at Buffalo
It’s supposed to be pretty cold in Buffalo this weekend, with highs in the mid-30s and snow showers in the forecast. That’s never a good scenario for teams from sunny SoCal. My pick: BUFFALO

NY Jets -1 at Green Bay
With game-time temps in the mid-20s and snow in the forecast, you know what it is ... THE FROZEN TUNDRA OF LAMBEAU FIELD! My pick: GREEN BAY

Dallas -3.5 at NY Giants
Just too many points to give to a home team against a huge division rival when both teams have similar talent. My pick: NY GIANTS

Houston +3 at Oakland
Wow, there will be some huge ratings for this one. The Raiders switched offensive coordinators this week, and they do have a better defense than Houston, so I’ll say the combo of those two get them the win. Buy to -2.5. My pick: OAKLAND

Seattle +3 at Denver
This game is wavering between +3 and +3.5, and I’m taking Denver at home, so I’ll grade at -2.5 (-140). I think new QB Jay Cutler inspires the Mile High faithful and the Broncos get it done. My pick: DENVER

Carolina -3 at Philadelphia
Carolina’s playoff hopes ride on this game and Philly knows it is done, so I’ll go with the team that has more to play for. Buy to -2.5. My pick: CAROLINA

Week 12 results: 11-5, +510
Season to date: 94-79-3 (54.3%), +$290

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