Understanding 'Luck' and Making It Work For You

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 54The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon NobleUnderstanding 'Luck' and Making It Work For YouTwo Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, theCowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tiethings up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to+7.5 were already counting their winnings.With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, oreven getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of theseplayers a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face. Thenthe unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was interceptedand returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call thisa highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way allthose Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it'ssurprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team'sperformance. Players might later review Dallas's schedule and note theCowboy's win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtlenuances of outrageous misfortune - like the 102 yard TD interception.In a very long season - such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breakstend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measureof a team's ability. It's more dangerous to ignore luck's affects on anNFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate howluck adds another dimension to a team's win/loss record.There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football teamdoes not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We'veall seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change handsbetween bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factorwhen evaluating teams.In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table whenthe ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there's actually nopattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a"pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are betterexplained by chance.How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from thequality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players doextensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavilyaffected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown acertain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) islikely to continue in the future.The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (orrefute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking atthe results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw moreinterceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "lookbad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a"correlation test" is.First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck - in this case,interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks ofthe prior season, to see which teams had the most, and leastinterceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based oninterceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the"bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nineweeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest avery high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probablykeep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half ofthe season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it wouldsuggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first halfof the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown bya team are almost completely random. In fact, you'd also find similarresults for all forms of giveaways and takeaways - there's less than a 20%correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simplyrecognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact onperception of good or bad luck.A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, butit's just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward.Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St.Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams withnegative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend tooutperform the public's expectations (and hence, the spread).There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statisticaledge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luckwill put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as awhole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze - from the Colts'3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking - if you canrecognize luck, you can make money off it.Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified.Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnoverchange makes to an NFL game (it's actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hitbatter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantifyhow much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can"adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of whattruly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, youwill profit.What are our players betting?Miami -17.5 -109 at DukeIn Miami's game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in thesuspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wiseguys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despitethe sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.Texas -6.5 -105 at NebraskaThe initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all ofwhich was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are threetimes as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asianplayers. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing toallow the line to drift to Texas -7.San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City ChiefsThe sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with somesharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type ofactivity, one of two things must be true - our push percentages are wrongor their numbers are wrong. Although there's fairly balanced action interms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we've takennearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati BengalsWe opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event - thesharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times asmany bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similarto the San Diego game, we're seeing some of our sharper players buythrough the "4".Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up nowwith Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

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