Thursday, August 03, 2006

Sports Betting

Wagering Odds to Win the 2006 Wild CardWhen are the New York Mets grouped with the Pittsburgh Pirates? When you're talking about the teams listed with FIELD odds to win the 2006 National League Wild Card. The Pirates are bunched with the also-rans because they have no hope of making the postseason; the Mets are there because there is little chance they'll need the Wild Card. That's because New York is firmly in control of the National League East division with just two months remaining in the regular season schedule. No team, not even the red-hot Detroit Tigers, has as big a lead as the Mets in their respective divisions at this point, and no other NL East club is even very close to having a .500 record on the year. So who's getting the top odds to win the Wild Card in the National League this season? That'd be the Cincinnati Reds, who are currently pegged at 5/2. The Reds, though, aren't all that far back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central standings, and as a result the Cards are pegged at 12/1 odds to be humbled by winning the NL Wild Card. The Reds' chief competitors for the NL's extra playoff berth are seen as coming from the NL West, with the San Diego Padres at 3/1 odds, the Arizona Diamondbacks at 4/1, and the San Francisco Giants at 6/1. The other two NL West teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies, are sitting at 15/1 and 20/1 odds on that chart now. One of those five west teams, of course, is going to end up winning their division, taking them out of the running to pay off for this futures wager. And although having two teams from the soft NL West division in the playoffs seems like a pretty big stretch, a glance at the relative weakness of the other NL team's records shows it's a fairly big possibility. The Houston Astros sit at 10/1 odds to capture the NL Wild Card this season. Other posted lines include the Atlanta Braves (15/1), Milwaukee Brewers (20/1), Florida Marlins (30/1), and Philadelphia Phillies (35/1). The field (the Mets, Pirates, Washington Nationals, and Chicago Cubs) are pegged way back at 250/1 by Vegas oddsmakers. Meanwhile, over in the American League, the New York Yankees have edged ahead of the Chicago White Sox as the oddsmakers' choice to win the AL Wild Card in 2006. The White Sox opened at 2/1 odds on this future a while back, but sluggish play has dropped them to 7/2. The Yankees, in contrast, have risen from 5/2 odds to 5/4 odds. Of course, the Bronx Bombers are also a strong contender to win yet another AL East title this season, so the rival Boston Red Sox are pegged at 5/2 odds to get into the playoffs via the Wild Card. And the Minnesota Twins, despite a bit of a setback on the weekend, still feature some dominant pitching and are currently pegged at 4/1 odds. The Detroit Tigers' odds of winning the AL Wild Card have gotten longer as their division lead has increased. The Tigers had been listed at 10/1 on this futures bet, but that line has now gone up to 15/1. That's the same number posted for the Toronto Blue Jays, who didn't do anything at the trade deadline to aid them in the race to the playoffs. The four AL West teams are all given fairly long odds to make the playoffs as a Wild Card this season; none of those clubs have records that can match the top teams in the AL's other two divisions. That means the Oakland A's (25/1 to win the Wild Card), Los Angeles Angels (25/1), Texas Rangers (50/1), and Seattle Mariners (100/1) are pegged as division-title-or-bust by the oddsmakers right now, a statement the standings support. And what of the Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and Kansas City Royals? They're all grouped as the field in the American League, and pegged at 500/1 odds to make the comeback of comebacks and earn a Wild Card berth this season. The Royals, though, would likely have to go undefeated to pull off that trick.
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